Highlights Our top five geopolitical “Black Swans” are risks that the market is seriously underpricing. With the “phase one” trade deal signed, Chinese policy could become less accommodative, resulting in a…
Highlights Duration: Despite recent setbacks, global growth looks set to improve and policy uncertainty set to ease during the next couple of months. Both will conspire to push bond yields higher. Investors should maintain below-…
Highlights Remain short the DXY index. The key risk to this view is a US-led rebound in global growth, or a pickup in US inflation that tilts the Federal Reserve to a relatively more hawkish bias. Stay long a petrocurrency basket. The…
Highlights Global Investment Strategy View Matrix Receding trade tensions; diminished risks of a hard Brexit; reduced odds of a victory for Elizabeth Warren in the US presidential elections; liquidity injections by most…
We doubt any serious US-Iran negotiations will take shape until 2021 at the earliest – and any negotiations could fail and lead to another, more serious round of military exchanges. This means that today’s reprieve…
Highlights Iran responded with missile attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting US troops in retaliation for the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force. The post-attack messaging from Iran and the US…
Highlights The US and Iran are not rushing into a full-scale war for the moment – and yet the bull market in US-Iran tensions will continue for at least the next 2-3 years (Chart 1). This means that while global risk assets can…
President Trump is all in for three reasons. First, while he will not be removed from office by a Republican Senate, his impeachment trial threatens to mar his re-election chances. This is a prime motivation to pursue foreign…
With the killing of General Soleimani, Middle Eastern tensions are once again surging. In the US, the House of Representatives may try to wrestle the power to wage war away from President Trump, but the Senate will not…