Highlights We expect tensions from the Sino-US trade war to marginally ease in 2020, in the run-up to the US presidential election. The “Phase One” trade deal will likely be signed with a good possibility of some tariff…
Our sister BCA Geopolitical Strategy Service has introduced a Presidential Election Model that uses political and economic variables to predict the Electoral College vote on the state-by-state level. The model would have predicted the…
It is too soon to declare that Trump’s presidency is finished. On the contrary he is slightly favored to win reelection. President Trump’s low approval rating does not prohibit him from reelection. While historically…
If Chinese growth can stabalize, then Europe’s economy can recover and European political risk will be a “red herring” in 2020, as it was in 2019. Euro Area break-up risk has subsided after a series of…
Highlights The Fed is the usual culprit for killing business cycles — but the Fed is on hold. This makes geopolitics the likeliest candidate to kill the cycle. The key geopolitical risks are US political turmoil, China’s…
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has seen a tremendous rally in opinion polls, although it has stalled at a level comparable to its peak ahead of the last election in June 2017. Another hung parliament or…
Germany is wading deeper into a period of political risk surrounding Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “lame duck” phase. The federal election of 2021 already looms large. Our indicator is only beginning to price this…
Highlights The US-China trade talks will continue despite Hong Kong. The UK election will not reintroduce no-deal Brexit risk – either in the short run or the long run. European political risk is set to rise from low levels,…