Highlights The U.S. and China are moving toward formalizing a trade ceasefire that reduces geopolitical risk in the near term. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is finished – removing a major downside to European assets. Spanish…
Highlights Shifting Trends: The factors that have driven bond yields lower throughout 2019 – slowing growth, rising uncertainty, demand for safe assets and dovish monetary policy expectations – have all started to turn in a…
If Turkey is the loser, who is the winner? First, Trump, who benefits from fulfilling a campaign pledge to reduce U.S. involvement in foreign wars – a stance that will ultimately be rewarded (or at least not punished) by a…
Despite the many hurdles that remain, prospects of a détente in the 18 month-long trade war are significantly rising. As a self-professed “master negotiator,” President Trump has put his credibility on the line…
Highlights The investors we met last week were ready to hear some good news: The constructive story we told across three days of client meetings is more sanguine than the consensus view, but clients were open to considering it. Global…
Highlights The interim “phase 1” trade agreement reached last week represents a significant step forward towards reaching a détente in the China-U.S. trade war. Regardless of what happens next in the Brexit…
Highlights There is a tentative decline in geopolitical risk: An orderly Brexit or no Brexit is the likely final outcome and the U.S.-China talks are coming together. The outstanding geopolitical risks still warrant caution on global…
Highlights New structural recommendation: long GBP/USD. The substantial Brexit discount in the pound makes it a long-term buy for investors who can tolerate near-term volatility. The most powerful equity play on a fading Brexit…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular Weekly Report this week, tomorrow we will be publishing a joint Special Report on the Chinese automobile industry outlook with our Emerging Markets Strategy service, authored by my colleague Ellen…
The Xi administration is not without its own constraints. Our proxies for China’s marginal propensity to consume show that Chinese animal spirits are still vulnerable, particularly on the household side, which has not…