The U.S. and China held the thirteenth round of trade negotiations last week after a summer replete with punitive measures, threats, and failed restarts. Tensions spiked just ahead of the talks. But Friday afternoon, President…
Highlights Geopolitical risks are starting to abate as a result of material constraints influencing policymakers. China needs to ensure its economy bottoms and a debt-deflationary tendency does not take hold. President Trump needs to…
The challenger power is not blameless. It senses weakness in the hegemon and begins to develop a regional sphere of influence. The problem is that regional hegemony is a perfect launching pad towards global hegemony. And while…
Speaking in the Reichstag in 1897, German Foreign Secretary Bernhard von Bülow proclaimed that it was time for Germany to demand “its own place in the sun.” The occasion was a debate on Germany’s policy…
Highlights MARKET FORECASTS Investment Strategy: Markets have entered a “show me” phase. Better economic data and meaningful progress on the trade negotiations will be necessary for stocks to move sustainably…
The price differential at which Canadian heavy-sour crude trades to the North American benchmark WTI will be pushed to -$20/bbl into 1Q20, as transportation constraints continue to slow the marginal barrel’s egress from Alberta.…
Highlights European and global growth will rebound in the fourth quarter but the rebound will lack longevity. Bonds: Expect bond yields to edge modestly higher, especially for those yields that are deeply in negative territory.…
The U.S.-China trade war still looms as the biggest risk to the global economy and remains the main source of investor angst. The Iranian attack on critical Saudi Arabian infrastructure also has the potential to destabilize…