Highlights The global manufacturing cycle is likely to bottom soon, and consumption and services remain robust. The risk of recession over the next 12 months is low. This suggests that equities will continue to outperform bonds. But…
Highlights The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but investors’ skittishness has caused stocks to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of news headlines. With investor sentiment playing a leading role, we introduce a…
Highlights President Trump’s support among Republicans and lack of smoking gun evidence will prevent his removal from office. Trade risk will increase if Trump’s approval benefits from impeachment proceedings and the U.S.…
Highlights U.S. growth will soon rebound thanks to robust drivers of domestic activity, and strengthening money and credit trends. The U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain an easing bias and will expand its balance sheet again. A…
President Trump is probably relishing the impeachment inquiry. He understands that he has a solid position in the Senate because his approval among Republicans is high. President Trump must also believe the Democrats’…
PM Johnson had already mostly lost control of the Brexit process once Parliament decided to take the matter in its own hands. His gambit to prorogue Parliament in order to regain controlled has now backfired as the Supreme…
According to KSA officials, repairs to the damaged 7-million-barrel-per-day processing facility at Abqaiq will mostly be completed by month-end. Relative to last month, we are not changing our price forecasts much, with Brent…
Highlights The U.K. economy has been holding up fairly well, despite the overhang of political uncertainty. However, even before the actual withdrawal of the U.K. from the E.U. has occurred, Brexit has left a lasting mark on the U.K.…