Remain tactically cautious on European assets as sentiment stays mixed and leading indicators show no acceleration. Euro area sentiment data for December continued to send conflicting signals. The Sentix index slightly beat…
The November Ifo survey disappointed, highlighting weakening expectations for Germany and limited near-term upside for European growth. The Business Climate Index fell to 88.1 from 88.4, driven by expectations dropping to 90.6 from…
Our European Investment strategists recommend underweighting German Bunds and favoring Eurozone equities over German equities, as Germany’s cyclical rebound is offset by structural and political headwinds. After nearly two years of…
Reports of a potential US–Russia peace proposal revived speculation about a ceasefire, creating short-term downside risks for European defense equities. The 28-point framework, led by Trump’s negotiator, signals that both sides are…
The November ZEW survey confirmed mixed sentiment in Europe, showing growth momentum is not taking off yet. Euro area growth expectations ticked up to 25.0 from 22.7, while German expectations missed estimates, edging down to 38.5…
Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3…
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and…
Germany is moving forward with implementing the large fiscal and defence spending announced earlier this year. Fiscal reforms are also positive, though they will fall short of expectations.