According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to…

  Tuesday’s German IFO survey corroborates the downbeat message from Monday’s flash PMI estimate highlighting weak economic conditions. The headline Business Climate Index dropped 1.3 points to 87.3 in July –…

  Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and…

  The preliminary inflation prints for June in the major euro area economies highlight a growing divergence in inflation outcomes. There was good news: headline CPI inflation in Italy fell to 6.7% in June from 8.0% in May, while…

  As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling…

  The message from the ZEW economic research institute’s June survey was mixed. On the one hand, the German Indicator of Economic Sentiment unexpectedly ticked up from -10.7 to -8.5. While the negative reading indicates that…

  Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both…

  Over the past couple years, the price of natural gas has closely tracked the relative performance of European assets. Specifically, the underperformance of Euro Area stocks vis-à-vis US equities and the weakening EUR/USD…

  The lift to European investor sentiment from the ebbing energy crisis is now in the rear-view mirror. The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell back below 0 in May to -10.7 from 4.1. The negative reading indicates that…