Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out  Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…

Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…

Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom index by a robust +48bps in Q1/2022 – an impressive performance given the significant uncertainties stemming from the Ukraine war, surging commodity…

Executive Summary Europe Is Russia's Key Gas Customer  Full-on rationing of natural gas by Germany took a step closer to reality, as the standoff with Russia over its insistence on being paid in roubles for gas plays out.…

Executive Summary Refreshing Our Tactical Trade List   Our current list of tactical trade recommendations centers around two broad themes that predate the Ukraine conflict – rising global inflation expectations and…

Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…

Highlights US Vs. Europe: Growth and inflation momentum remains stronger in the US versus Europe. The latter is taking the bigger economic hit from more severe Omicron economic restrictions and a greater exposure to slowing Chinese…

  We have entered a new phase of the cycle, with central banks in most developed markets turning more hawkish (the Bank of England surprisingly hiking in December, and the Fed signaling three rate hikes for 2022). How much does…