US and Euro Area measures of consumer confidence are diverging. According to the Conference Board survey, US consumer sentiment declined for the third consecutive month to a seven-month low of 109.3 in September. The nearly six-…
The German IFO’s Business Climate Index softened for the third consecutive month in September, falling to 98.8 from 99.6. The weakness was led by the Current Assessment number which lost 1-point versus expectations of a minor…
Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy & Geopolitical Strategy services conclude that German stocks are a bargain. During the past 5 months, the German MSCI index has underperformed the rest of the Eurozone by 6.2…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…
Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have jumped ahead of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc and are now leading in opinion polling for the upcoming September 26…
The German IFO reveals that businesses continue to pare back optimism. The headline index fell 1.3 points to 99.4 on the back of a greater than expected 3.5-point decline in expectations. Meanwhile, the current assessment…
Germany's Q2 GDP was revised up to 1.6% q/q versus the initial estimate of 1.5% q/q. The latest figure reduces the GDP gap relative to Q4 2019 to 3.2%. The details of the release reveal that while government spending and…
Highlights China’s July Politburo meeting signaled that policy is unlikely to be overtightened. The Biden administration is likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure deal – as well as a large spending bill by Christmas.…