Highlights Uncertainty & Yields: Global bond yields, driven to all-time lows as investors seek safety amid rioting markets, now discount a multi-year period of very weak global growth and inflation. Bond Portfolio Strategy:…
The German economy has suffered its set of woes in 2019, and 2020 is starting poorly. True, factory orders in January improved significantly, but Germany could suffer greatly from COVID-19. First, its industrial economy is very…
Highlights It is too soon to bottom feed with fears of a global pandemic and “socialist” boom in the United States. China’s government will do “whatever it takes” to stimulate the economy – but…
Germany’s IFO business survey for February came out slightly stronger than expected, rising from 96 to 96.1. Germany is highly sensitive to both global trade and China, which should make the German economy a prime casualty…
Tuesday’s release of the German ZEW survey showed that the nascent recovery in the economy is at risk from the COVID-19 shock. The current situation component of the index deteriorated from -9.5 to -15.7, while the…
Following last week’s disastrous industrial production numbers, Germany’s Q4 GDP number was weak, coming in 0% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. As BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service often…
The German economy has been the main European victim of the global manufacturing slowdown. However, there are early signs that Germany should soon mend. In particular, the momentum in the IFO Survey points to an upcoming rebound…
Highlights China’s economic rebound in Q1 will be delayed due to the coronavirus, which will have a larger negative hit than SARS. New stimulus measures will assist a rebound in demand later this year. Europe remains a…
Highlights Stock markets begin 2020 with fragile short-term fractal structures, which means there is a two in three chance of a tactical reversal. The bond yield impulse is now a strong headwind, which reliably predicts that bond…