The December German Ifo not only rebounded, but also beat expectations. Business climate increased from 95.1 to 96.3 and the expectations component climbed to 93.8 from 92.3. The German Ifo tends to provide a lead on the PMI…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Wednesday, December 18th at 10:00 AM EST, where I will discuss the major investment themes and views I see playing out for 2020. This will be…
Germany is wading deeper into a period of political risk surrounding Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “lame duck” phase. The federal election of 2021 already looms large. Our indicator is only beginning to price this…
Highlights The US-China trade talks will continue despite Hong Kong. The UK election will not reintroduce no-deal Brexit risk – either in the short run or the long run. European political risk is set to rise from low levels,…
Highlights Equities & Bonds: The accelerating upward momentum of global equities – the ultimate “leading economic indicator” – suggests that the current rise in global bond yields can continue. Maintain…
On the heels of yesterday’s disappointing German PMIs, the October Belgian Business Confidence and German IFO surveys will help alleviate fears towards the European economy. While the current assessment component of the IFO…
Highlights On a tactical horizon, underweight bonds versus cash, especially those bonds with deeply negative yields… …and underweight bonds versus equities. On a strategic horizon, remain overweight a 50:50 combination…
The oil price impulse has a major bearing on Germany’s short term growth accelerations and decelerations. The six months ending in June 2019 constituted a severe headwind impulse. A 30% increase in oil prices in that period…
If the German economy contracts in the third quarter and thereby enters a technical recession, the knee-jerk response will be to blame the troubles in the auto industry. But the evidence does not support this story. German new…
Highlights European and global growth will rebound in the fourth quarter but the rebound will lack longevity. Bonds: Expect bond yields to edge modestly higher, especially for those yields that are deeply in negative territory.…