The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
Highlights ECB Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) bought time for Euro Area inflation to sustainably move higher by extending the duration, and removing some of the self-imposed limits, on its bond buying program. The higher…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights De-globalization is accelerating. Europe is holding together, with populism in check. China power consolidation reflects extreme risks. Brexit is more likely, not less, after court ruling. Feature Chart I-1America Has…
Highlights ECB Monetary Policy: Euro Area inflation will likely remain below the European Central Bank (ECB) 2% target for the next few years due to persistent excess capacity in Europe. The ECB will signal this at the December…
Highlights When interest rates are ultra-low, central banks have no margin for policy error. A small loosening or tightening has the potential to produce either a stall or catastrophic turbulence. The analogy is flying a plane at high…
In September, the model outperformed the S&P 500, while it underperformed global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For October, the model trimmed its allocation to stocks and boosted its weightings in bonds and cash…
Are negative yields on $10 trillion of global bonds a sure sign of a bubble? The answer is no... and yes.