For now, maintain a benchmark duration stance leading into the June 23 U.K. Brexit vote, favoring Treasuries and (especially) Gilts over Bunds and JGBs.
There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move via cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.
We focus on 3 stress-points in the economy and markets which segue to several high conviction investment recommendations.
Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S…
Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S…
We continue to recommend a cautious investment stance, staying at benchmark duration, as the recovery in risk assets looks more like a counter-trend rally than the start of a new bullish run.
It is the perfect time to add protection, given the 13% rally in stocks over the past six weeks and the current steepness of the VIX term-structure.
In recent travel, our clients remain focused on downside risks to today's range-bound markets. And for good reason. Uncertainty regarding Chinese reaction function is the biggest source of political risk in today's markets. We…
We still recommend a cautious stance on portfolio risk, for both credit and duration exposure, given that monetary policy expectations priced into Developed Market yield curves are already extremely dovish.
The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.