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Germany

German Election: Winds Of Change, Again
Our Geopolitical Strategy team reviewed possible outcomes for Sunday's German election as the far-right is playing an expanding role in mainstream German politics. German voters have shifted to the right, weakening the ruling center-left parties and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Sentiment Data Suggests Europe Is Past Peak Pessimism
The February ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 26.0 from 10.3 a month prior. The current situation assessment also improved, although it remains deeply negative at -88.5.  The improvement…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
German Election: Winds Of Change, Again
Special Report

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high. 

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Yushu Ma
Bonds And The Fiscal Policy Risk
Special Report

Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
European Sentiment Remains Sluggish
The January ZEW index for Germany missed estimates, with expectations falling to 10.3 from 15.7 in December. However, the euro area level index ticked up to 18 from 17 a month prior. Measures of current conditions also rose. The lack of momentum for…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Bond Market Riot Engulfs Europe

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
European Sentiment Data Confirms December Softening
European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…
Daily Insights
Flash PMIs Show Subdued Global Growth, Weakening Manufacturing
December flash PMIs for the core advanced economies showed service sector growth picking up. Manufacturing keeps contracting, and the US continues to outperform its DM peers. The US composite index beat expectations and increased to 56.6 from 54.9.…
Daily Insights
Trade Tensions Will Keep Weighing On German Factory Orders
German factory orders decreased less than expected in October, falling 1.5% m/m after rising 7.2% in September. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders rose 0.1%, after rising 2.7% a month prior. Despite the…
Daily Insights
A Shutdown A La Française

France finds itself in a unique, thorny situation. Can it heave itself out of it? And what does it mean for investors? 

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Jeremie Peloso

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