Global
Global economic surprises have improved. Currently positive and improving in the US, they are rising from a low level in the Eurozone and China. Two explanations could explain this momentum. First, the recent easing in financial conditions may have boosted…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, its survey of business contacts, shows an economy that has seen little growth since early September. The Fed’s contacts confirmed the manufacturing recession reflected in other data sources. Loan demand was mixed, as…
The US dollar had a strong October thus far, breaching its 20-,50- and 200-day moving averages with a 4% increase and only three trading days in the red. The DXY now sits above where it was before the August selloff in risk assets. What’s behind this…
The US election is tightening in its final weeks, and the latest polls challenge our Geopolitical Strategy’s base case of a Democratic White House. The original thesis was built on the premise of a Democratic incumbent advantage, after only four years in…
According to the latest estimate of the output gap, the US economy still operates above potential. Continued overheating – a no-landing scenario – would cause a drastic re-pricing across markets which expect a near-perfect soft-landing. The output gap is…
Since the August selloff in risk assets, the main cross-asset driver was the shift from inflation worries to growth worries. Some of that price action has reversed, as TIPS breakeven inflation rates swiftly rebounded since early September. The 2-year…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
Crude prices have been trendless but volatile in 2024. Oil’s choppy price action illustrates the demand and supply tug-o-war in the market. Our bias is for crude prices to weaken on a six-to-nine months horizon. Good economic news such as the resilience of…