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Global

Better Entry Point Ahead For Copper
Copper prices have returned a whopping 25.6% YTD, briefly breaking above USD 5 earlier this month. The red metal accounts for a large share of industrial metals indices and it is being buoyed by the same late-cycle dynamics as they are. Copper is deriving…
Daily Insights
The Dollar Has Diverged From Global Growth
The greenback typically moves in the opposite direction of global growth. The US economy is indeed more highly geared towards services than manufacturing, compared with the rest of the world. Therefore, when global growth reaccelerates, capital typically…
Daily Insights
One Last Blow-Off Rally In Cyclicals Is Plausible
The US manufacturing cycle has followed a surprisingly stable pattern for over seven decades. History suggests that this cycle tends to last for about 36 months, with a down leg spanning 18 months, followed by an up leg approximately spanning another 18…
Daily Insights
Will DM Ex-US And US Growth Recouple?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the non-US developed economy is “demand-constrained” whereas the US economy is “supply-constrained”. This schism will continue but in reverse. The team has highlighted that following the surge in…
Daily Insights
DM Manufacturing Activity Improves In May
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably, manufacturing activity started growing…
Daily Insights
Copper: What Happens Next?
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the sudden increase in investor optimism about copper and lopsided long positioning has led to a short squeeze. Short squeezes are typically short-lived and are followed by a rapid unwinding…
Daily Insights
Do Not Heed The Signal From Industrial Metals
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted that the overrepresentation of…
Daily Insights
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An Unprecedented Schism In The World Economy

The economic schism in the world economy, between the non-US developed economy in recession and the US in strong growth, is unprecedented during our lifetimes. Now the schism will continue in reverse, as the non-US developed economy rebounds while the US fades. There are important implications for rates, the dollar, and sector and regional equity allocation which we discuss. Plus: base metals are a tactical short.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Mixed Messages From Global Growth Bellwethers
Export dynamics from small open economies are bellwethers for global trade and recent export data out of Taiwan and South Korea suggested robust global growth momentum in March. In April, Singapore’s electronics exports, which are particularly sensitive to…
Daily Insights
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The Superstar Economy: Part 3

The US stock market’s record 50 percent valuation premium versus the non-US stock market is pricing generative AI to do through the next decade what the Web 2.0 network effect did through the last decade. But this is a huge ask, as it will be very difficult for the Web 2.0 superstar companies to become generative AI superstar companies, assuming there are indeed any lasting generative AI superstar companies. We go through the main long-term investment implications.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics