BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service ranks the major economies by their economic and financial performance under various categories. In the inflation category, the surprising top award goes to Italy, a country which…
The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch…
Clients are increasingly more positive about the US economy, but there are no signs of exuberance. The rally could continue as the majority is not fully invested. Financial conditions have already eased, and the Fed is unlikely to…
As we discussed in a recent Insight, the krone is the top pick for our Foreign Exchange Strategy team. The krone upgrade is one of the most significant changes in our colleagues’ attractiveness ranking model. Norway has the…
2023 was a year of mystery for the copper market. On the one hand, China’s copper intake boomed last year despite the travails of the mainland economy and shrinking property construction. On the other hand, global copper…
This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.
Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (…
According to BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service, Qatar will be the winner as it takes advantage of the global energy transition towards renewables and the world fragments under economic and…
Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered…
The stock market of the Eurozone’s largest economy keeps grinding higher with the DAX 40 closing at new highs last week. Since its October low, the index of German blue-chip companies advanced by 20%. Does this rally…