Global
Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.
The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in the US and the UK. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, we highlight an interesting sector pair-trade.
When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.