According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service there is more downside than upside for stocks and yields. Every year the team chooses their top five low-probability, high-impact events that could roil markets.…
Flash PMIs sent a generally positive update on economic activity across major DM economies in January – particularly in the case of manufacturing. In the US, the composite index rose to a 7-month high of 52.3, beating…
Investors should be tactically tilting allocations towards Direct Lending, Distressed Debt, and Directional Hedge Fund strategies at the expense of Real Estate, Private Equity, and Diversifier Hedge Funds. Structural opportunities…
Some key Asian trade indicators are warning against betting on a sustained rebound in global trade activity. In particular, Taiwanese export orders collapsed by 16% y/y in December – significantly below expectations of a…
Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are…
This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the structural uptrend in bitcoin is still intact. The intrinsic value of bitcoin is that it cannot be confiscated by the state, either through monetary inflation, or…
The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration…