Our Global Investment Strategists remain defensive, expecting a global recession in the coming months unless the trade war de-escalates meaningfully. They maintain a year-end S&P 500 target of 4450, with downside risk to 4200.…
The recent breakdown in cross-asset correlations highlights mounting risk premia on US assets. Last week, the long-standing correlations underpinning our understanding of global markets violently broke down. The Treasury market…
The US dollar’s reserve status is not done, but its foundations are starting to crack. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist. Most defensive currencies, like the yen and the Swiss…
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists continue to recommend long duration exposure, curve steepeners, and an underweight in corporate bonds relative to government bonds, as global recession risks rise. The trade war has increased the…
Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.
Private Equity’s cash flow problem is showing up in the job market. In August 2024, our Chief Private Markets & Alternatives Strategist Brian Payne highlighted how hard it had become for Private Equity firms to return money to…
This week, our three screeners cover: Equity plays in Low Vol & Low Beta outside the US; Chinese stocks; and stocks that are buys according to the PEG ratio.
Our GeoMacro strategists recommend positioning for an exodus out of US assets, with long exposure to gold, the yen, and the Canadian dollar. April 2, “Liberation Day,” is likely to mark the peak in de-globalization hysteria, as the…
Low correlations and regional dispersion are shaping market dynamics, creating selective opportunities outside the US even as near-term risks remain. Asset classes tend to become highly correlated during crisis episodes, limiting…