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2024 Key Views: The End Of Eras

We expect the US economy to slow and potentially downshift into a recession sometime in 2024, as tighter monetary policy weighs on consumers and businesses. In addition, (geo)political tensions may increase market volatility. The risk/return for US equities is unfavorable. We recommend that our clients reduce portfolio beta and increase allocations to defensives and quality growth.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
November Survey Results: Bracing For Recession
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the timing of the next US recession, the Fed, and concerns for the global economy in 2024. On the US economic outlook, nearly all respondents…
Daily Insights
Global Equity Breadth Rolls Off Its Peak
It’s no secret that a handful of mega caps have been driving markets in 2023, masking a somewhat lackluster year for equities. In fact, on an equal-weighted basis, markets gave up nearly all their YTD gains by the end of October. However, the latest rally has…
Daily Insights
November In Review
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the strong performance of US investment…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Tight Policy Will Eventually Trigger Recession

Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
What Does A Deep Recession Do To Oil Prices?
BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service does not expect a global recession next year.  In practical terms, this means they are more bullish on their oil-price outlook for 2024 than the consensus and also differ with the BCA House view.  In…
Daily Insights
The Baltic Dry Revival
The Baltic Dry index, which measures the average price paid for the transport of dry bulk materials across more than 20 shipping lanes, has rebounded 63% this month and 130% since the middle of the year. The latest leg of the rally is not happening in…
Daily Insights
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OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

The Bank Credit Analyst
Inventory Cycles And Markets
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory restocking worldwide will support the…
Daily Insights
What Are Balance Of Payments Telling Us?
Most developed market central banks have paused hiking interest rates. With interest-rate differentials having been the most important driver of currencies over the last two years or so, the focus might now shift to other factors. One such factor could be…
Daily Insights

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