Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are…
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New…
Our Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model – which is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon – is currently overweight equities and underweight bonds and cash…
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents…
The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up by a marginal 0.1 point to 49.1 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity deteriorated at a slightly slower pace than in August. However, several of the details of the report were…
The “September Effect” was in full force again this year as the broad-based selloff continued. Nearly all major financial assets generated outsized returns last month. In particular, the “higher for longer…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
Our Equity Analyzer service is a stock selection platform powered by the BCA Score, a 30-factor stock ranking system. The model tends to benefit from periods of uncertainty due to its high-quality and low volatility tilt. The…
In Section I, we note that the recent surge in long-maturity government bond yields is symptomatic of a sharp reduction in market expectations for a soft-landing economic outcome. This underscores that the US and other developed…