Emerging Market equities have been in a broad trading range all year. The MSCI index peaked on January 26, then bottomed in mid-March before recouping nearly all of its losses over the subsequent months. However, after nearly…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the global energy transition will become more disorderly, if oil-and-gas capex growth continues to outpace that of critical minerals. The…
US dollar strength and rising real rates have created a toxic mix for the yellow metal over the past few months. Gold prices have fallen by 7.3% from the May peak and are on track to erase the year-to-date gains. Conditions…
Last week, the Federal Reserve signaled that it expects to deliver one last rate hike this year. Similarly, some of its European counterparts signaled that they are at or close to the end of their hiking cycles. Where does this…
Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US…
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues’ once-out-of-consensus call on crude oil prices – i.e., benchmark Brent prices averaging $94/bbl in 2H23 and trading above $100/bbl by December – now is the…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices. One risk that…
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders…
The biggest misunderstanding in the markets right now is that to keep expected inflation well-anchored at 2 percent, inflation must undershoot 2 percent for some time. This implies that interest rate futures curves are mispriced, and…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sent a pessimistic signal about the global manufacturing cycle on Monday. The 20.1% y/y contraction in August is broadly in line with July’s 20.3% y/y drop and came in…