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Global

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The Time To Buy Bonds

The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Global Risk-Off Sentiment Weighing On EM Currencies
EM currencies have gotten caught up in the risk off sentiment across global financial markets. The JP Morgan Emerging Markets currency index has fallen to a new record low amid the US dollar’s ongoing appreciation. While the EM currency index has been on a…
Daily Insights
Are Oil Prices On A Slippery Slope?
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are multiple suspects behind the…
Daily Insights
Unwinding
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New Business and New Export Business…
Daily Insights
MacroQuant 1.0 Update
Our Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model – which is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon – is currently overweight equities and underweight bonds and cash. Model: The asset allocation decision is…
Daily Insights
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The ‘Sahm Rule’ Recession Trigger Is Good, But The ‘Joshi Rule’ Is Better

We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
September Survey Results: High For Longer
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents expect the price of oil to end the…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing: Somes Signs Of Stabilization
The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up by a marginal 0.1 point to 49.1 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity deteriorated at a slightly slower pace than in August. However, several of the details of the report were more optimistic. In…
Daily Insights
September In Review
The “September Effect” was in full force again this year as the broad-based selloff continued. Nearly all major financial assets generated outsized returns last month. In particular, the “higher for longer” narrative dominated the market action. Global and…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The Vice Tightens Further

Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven investment with carry.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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