Global
The last few weeks saw a repricing of nominal yields to levels not breached since before the Great Financial Crisis. Breaking down the US 10-year Treasury yield into real and inflation expectations components reveals the selloff was mostly driven by the…
Taiwanese exports unexpectedly grew for the first time in just over a year in September – sending a positive signal about the global manufacturing cycle. The 3.4% y/y increase surprised anticipations of a moderation in the rate of decline from -7.3% y/y to…
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.
EM currencies have gotten caught up in the risk off sentiment across global financial markets. The JP Morgan Emerging Markets currency index has fallen to a new record low amid the US dollar’s ongoing appreciation. While the EM currency index has been on a…
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are multiple suspects behind the…
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New Business and New Export Business…
Our Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model – which is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon – is currently overweight equities and underweight bonds and cash. Model: The asset allocation decision is…
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents expect the price of oil to end the…
The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up by a marginal 0.1 point to 49.1 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity deteriorated at a slightly slower pace than in August. However, several of the details of the report were more optimistic. In…