Global
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the structural bull case for carbon credits remains compelling. However, tactical investors should brace for prices to plateau or even correct over the next 12-to-24 months. The long-term…
If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.
The broader rally that started in June is premised on a Goldilocks narrative that will prove to be a fairy tale. Either by stubborn inflation. Or, by higher unemployment that shows that the war on inflation is far from costless. Or, by both. We discuss the implications for stocks and bonds. And we reveal our new top long dollar cross.
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, US stocks, and China’s contribution to global growth. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondent (82%) expect…
Our Global Investment Strategy Service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model favors the US and India within the equity universe. The 1.0 version of the MacroQuant model is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon. MacroQuant 1.0 is…
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Unsupervised methods, like Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can create powerful indicators that are based purely on the structure of the data and void of researcher bias. Therefore, they can provide agnostic evidence to support BCA’s fundamental,…
Global financial markets relapsed in August. After a relatively strong performance in June and July, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month as investors shifted their focus to the risk of a “no landing” scenario…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service much of the new BRICS+ countries lack the fundamental basis of making a credible monetary union. A reserve currency needs the military might to control the trading routes necessary to maintain…