The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic…
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects steady demand for EVs will be able to absorb increasing lithium supplies in the short-to-medium term. The team is getting long the LIT ETF at tonight’s…
Wheat and corn prices have surged by 16% and 11%, respectively since Russia refused to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative after it expired on July 17. The deal, which was negotiated with Turkey and the UN, allowed shipments of…
In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q2/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio return…
Taiwanese export orders sent a pessimistic signal about the global trade cycle. The contraction deepened in June from -17.6% y/y to -24.9% y/y – delivering a downside surprise to expectations of a 20.3% y/y decline. The…
The South African rand has been a key winner amid the recent improvement in risk sentiment. Notably, the ZAR's 10.9% appreciation versus the US dollar since May 25 has made it the best performing major currency over this…
Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has fallen sharply over the past few months and is now slightly negative – indicating that economic data have surprised to the downside. Yet beneath the surface, there is…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/…