Global
2023 is shaping up as a record-breaking year for global oil demand, according to our colleagues BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES). By year end, they expect the world will be consuming a record 103.5mm b/d, an increase of 2.6% year-over-year…
The Chinese government today announced that it is suspending the reporting of urban youth unemployment rate. This rate reached 21.3% in June after climbing since December. While there is an element of seasonality to the data – as youth unemployment rate…
The gold/silver ratio (GSR) entered a well-defined tapered wedge formation with downside support near 80, and an upside breakout around the 90 level. Back in 2020, this ratio was caught up in a race towards major overhead resistance at 100, but finally hit a…
Sweden’s preliminary Flash GDP data, which is subject to revisions, points a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter and 2.4% year-over-year contraction. However, this report could potentially constitute the trough in the country’s economic slowdown. Indeed, Sweden’s…
Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should stay overweight low-beta assets. Geopolitical risk is likely to stay elevated in Asia Pacific in the coming months. Mainland China faces debt-deflation, poor governance, and a…
China has generated 41 percent of the world’s economic growth through the past ten years, al-most double the 22 percent contribution from the US. Now that the Chinese growth engine is failing, we explain why it is arithmetically impossible for world growth to maintain the altitude of the past few decades. And we discuss an important investment implication.
On Friday, shipping giant Maersk delivered a pessimistic outlook for global trade. Although the company raised its 2023 earnings forecast, the upgrade comes on the back of a better-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year. Ebitda fell by 72%…
The first half of the year was characterized by a two-speed economy. Manufacturing bore the brunt of the weakness while the services sector remained resilient. However, the global composite PMI corroborates the signal from DM flash PMIs that this dynamic is…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, Russia is likely to cut oil production to pressure the West as a part of its war effort. This cut would push oil prices to above $90/bbl, in line with the team’s…