Wheat, corn, and soybean all traded lower at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following the US Department of Agriculture’s latest release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) –…
The stratospheric valuation of this year’s AI mania is likely to deflate, just as it did after the Web 1.0 mania of the late 90s. We go through some long-term and short-term investment implications.
Investors’ positioning in the USD is not homogenous: they are short some currencies but long others versus the greenback. Market commentators often refer to the US dollar. They implicitly mean the US currency is moving…
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that…
On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk…
In the past we have highlighted a dichotomy in the global economy characterized by weak manufacturing conditions versus a robust service sector. As goods spending normalized from the pandemic binge, consumption of services…
The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while…
The Global Manufacturing PMI’s 0.8-point decline to a six-month low of 48.8 in June indicates that manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the end of Q2. The forward-looking New Orders and New Export Orders components both…
The performance of financial markets continued to improve in June, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns. The US equity rally – which had been narrowly concentrated among…
On a 12-month investment horizon, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service recommends a defensive stance: Overweight government bonds, and underweight equities and credit. The US stock market trades on 19x forward…