Global

On Friday, shipping giant Maersk delivered a pessimistic outlook for global trade. Although the company raised its 2023 earnings forecast, the upgrade comes on the back of a better-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year. Ebitda fell by 72%…

2 years ago

Essentials

Is the Relative Manufacturing/Services Weakness Reversing?

The first half of the year was characterized by a two-speed economy. Manufacturing bore the brunt of the weakness while the services sector remained resilient. However, the global composite PMI corroborates the signal from DM flash PMIs that this dynamic is…

2 years ago

Essentials

A Russian Oil Embargo?

According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, Russia is likely to cut oil production to pressure the West as a part of its war effort. This cut would push oil prices to above $90/bbl, in line with the team’s…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

A Seasonal Illusion Threatens Goldilocks Markets

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

2 years ago

Essentials

Global Manufacturing: A Positive Signal From Sweden

The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new orders, and new export orders.…

2 years ago

Essentials

July In Review

The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…

2 years ago

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

2 years ago

Essentials

EV Demand Drives The Lithium Market

BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects steady demand for EVs will be able to absorb increasing lithium supplies in the short-to-medium term. The team is getting long the LIT ETF at tonight’s close. Demand for lithium-ion batteries…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Our Top 5 Blockchains

Special Report

We recommend a small structural exposure to cryptocurrencies and blockchain tokens, given their incipient real-world uses as well as their proven hedging qualities against the debasement of fiat money and in banking crises. In this Special Report, we rank the major blockchains on five factors – developer activity, adoption, decentralization, scalability, and security – from which we arrive at our top five blockchains.

2 years ago

Essentials

Geopolitics, Indian Export Ban Raise Grain Supply Risks

Wheat and corn prices have surged by 16% and 11%, respectively since Russia refused to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative after it expired on July 17. The deal, which was negotiated with Turkey and the UN, allowed shipments of Ukrainian grain from Odessa. …

2 years ago

Global

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