Global
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. In classical physics, the trajectory of an object can be described by its position,…
China’s June export data sent a negative signal about global manufacturing conditions. The -12.4% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports fell below expectations of a -10% y/y decline, registering the steepest annual contraction since February 2020.…
BCA’s Global Asset Allocation service (GAA) recommends a defensive multi-asset portfolio allocation due to a high probability of recession. However, our colleagues also add a hedge to manage upside risk because they do not expect recession to start until…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service concludes that strong EM demand coupled with OPEC+’s production cuts will help boost oil prices in the coming months. EM oil demand growth continues to power global consumption higher. The latest…
Wheat, corn, and soybean all traded lower at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following the US Department of Agriculture’s latest release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – down 4.2%, 3.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. …
The stratospheric valuation of this year’s AI mania is likely to deflate, just as it did after the Web 1.0 mania of the late 90s. We go through some long-term and short-term investment implications.
Investors’ positioning in the USD is not homogenous: they are short some currencies but long others versus the greenback. Market commentators often refer to the US dollar. They implicitly mean the US currency is moving in the same direction against all (or…
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.
On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk asset prices.
In the past we have highlighted a dichotomy in the global economy characterized by weak manufacturing conditions versus a robust service sector. As goods spending normalized from the pandemic binge, consumption of services recovered following the removal of…