According to BCA Research’s newly launched Private Markets & Alternatives service, the present moment in the business cycle appears to be favorable for Private Credit relative to Private Equity. The current…
Our Counterpoint strategists believe that that the oil price has further downside, likely to a cycle low of $55 – because expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are much too optimistic. Oil demand tracks…
As the major central banks once again mull their policy options, they face a daunting task. They must phase-transition inflation back to imperceptible, without phase-transitioning unemployment to perceptible. This report explains why…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We…
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above…
US stocks have outperformed their global peers on a year-to-date basis. The MSCI US index’s 7.5% gain since January 18 eclipses the ACW index’s 3.1% increase. This trend has recently become even more pronounced: while…
Most of the profits that today’s internet companies earn stem from the quasi-monopoly power that they enjoy. According BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is possible that AI will have the…
The AI craze could further lift stock prices, boost capex, and delay the onset of the next recession. Looking further out, reaping the profit windfall from AI may take longer than many investors expect.