As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.
The Swiss KOF Barometer ended its four-month-long streak of rising monthly readings in April. It dropped nearly three points to 96.4 – below expectations of 98.1. Considering that the KOF barometer is a leading indicator…
Many investors have been wondering why big tech stocks like Microsoft and Apple have done so well this year. One reason might be their quality. The quality factor has been the best performing equity factor this year. Most of…
Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.
Flash PMIs for April indicate that an ongoing improvement in the service sector continues to drive economic activity across major developed economies. Composite PMIs in the US, Eurozone, and the UK are all firming on the back…
China’s economic reopening, the abating European energy crisis, and rising real income growth amid a moderation in inflation have led to a pickup in economic activity over the past few months. The JP Morgan Global Composite…
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in…
In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q1/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio slightly…
Tight monetary policy will suppress copper capex. Loose fiscal policy, which is lavishing stimulus on energy and defense firms, will stoke copper demand. Constrained copper supply and turbo-charged demand will feed into headline…