Although the sector composition of growth and value indexes have changed over time, growth stocks have tended to underperform value stocks over the past several years when bond yields have risen. The basis for this relationship…
Global PMIs delivered a poor signal about manufacturing activity in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked down from 49.9 to 49.6. It marks the seventh consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line and indicates a…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted last week, we asked about our readers’ expectations for Fed policy and the US economy. The majority of respondents (67%) expect the Fed to end the tightening cycle in H1…
March was a month of two halves. The turmoil that erupted in the wake of the failures of SVB and Signature Bank led to a bout of risk-off sentiment in the first half of March. Equities sold off globally, oil prices fell, and…
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…
It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit…