According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should remain cautious and defensive. China is reopening and stimulating its economy in pursuit of stability after several rocky years. This is…
Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading…
Easing inflationary pressures as well as a softening of the energy crisis and signs of economic resilience in Europe have led to a rebound in global consumer confidence. Our Global Consumer Confidence Indicator and its diffusion…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the sustainability of the equity rally depends on whether corporate profits hold up. It is not unusual for a period of equity gains to occur between an …
It is not unusual for a period of rebounding share prices to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and a growth scare. Initially, stocks rally on falling inflation and prospects of lower interest rates. Then, worries about…
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator – a GDP weighed average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies – has been steadily deteriorating since early-2021. To the extent that this…
G10 commodity currencies have generally underperformed their peers recently. Since the beginning of December, the NOK and CAD have weakened slightly versus the dollar. Similarly, the NZD’s and AUD’s gains have trailed…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends a neutral overall allocation to ILBs in global fixed income portolios. At the country level, go underweight Italian and French inflation-linked bonds. The…
Inflation Surprise Indices have come down from stratospheric levels across DM economies, indicating that inflation figures are surprising by smaller margins. The moderation is broad-based across the US, Euro Area, UK, and Canada…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service concludes that the housing outlook is dimmer outside the US. Among developed economies, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Nordics are the most vulnerable. There are…