While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.
Since early November, US equities have been underperforming their global peers in USD terms. To some extent, this development reflects recent dollar weakness. However, there are some fundamental reasons for the outperformance…
The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus:…
Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits…
Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.
In US dollar terms, sector compositions largely explain the relative performance of major global equity markets in 2022. The sharp increase in commodity prices (reflected in the 9% increase in the S&P GSCI) lifted the…
Aside from energy, which was by far the highest returning global sector of 2022 – outperforming the MSCI ACWI by 47% – defensives have otherwise topped the ranking of alpha-generating sectors last year. Utilities,…
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell deeper in contraction territory in December, dropping to 48.6 from 48.8. Although global output declined at a slower pace, the deterioration in measures of demand conditions (new orders…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, there are several risks to economic growth suggesting that the US equity risk premium should be higher than it was on average during the early-to-mid 2000s.…