Global
US equities have been underperforming their US peers over the past few months. Relatively more attractive valuations in both the Euro Area and EM, as well as an improvement in the economic outlook, have contributed to this outperformance. In the Euro Area, a…
Evidence of easing inflationary pressures – as well as favorable economic developments in Europe and China – are boosting investor sentiment and supporting US equities. Yet, this stock market behavior also reflects an improvement in technical conditions. The…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should remain cautious and defensive. China is reopening and stimulating its economy in pursuit of stability after several rocky years. This is marginally positive news for the global…
Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading indicator of this event horizon, and what it means for investment strategy.
Easing inflationary pressures as well as a softening of the energy crisis and signs of economic resilience in Europe have led to a rebound in global consumer confidence. Our Global Consumer Confidence Indicator and its diffusion index – which are constructed…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the sustainability of the equity rally depends on whether corporate profits hold up. It is not unusual for a period of equity gains to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and…
It is not unusual for a period of rebounding share prices to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and a growth scare. Initially, stocks rally on falling inflation and prospects of lower interest rates. Then, worries about corporate profits intensify, and equity prices deflate along with falling Treasury yields. This is what happened in the US in 2000-2001 and is likely to occur in the coming months.
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator – a GDP weighed average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies – has been steadily deteriorating since early-2021. To the extent that this indicator is designed to provide a 6- to 12-month…
G10 commodity currencies have generally underperformed their peers recently. Since the beginning of December, the NOK and CAD have weakened slightly versus the dollar. Similarly, the NZD’s and AUD’s gains have trailed most other G10 currencies. Recent…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends a neutral overall allocation to ILBs in global fixed income portolios. At the country level, go underweight Italian and French inflation-linked bonds. The upside for inflation breakevens (and…