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Global

Global Manufacturing Contraction Eases In January
PMIs suggest that the pace of decline in manufacturing activity slowed in January. The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.1 from 48.7, indicating that the rate of contraction eased last month. Notably, the improvement was broad-based across all…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: The Key Question For The Fed

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
The Web 2.0 Bubble Is Bursting. Here’s What It Means

The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, with far-reaching consequences for US stock market behaviour, sector allocation, and global asset allocation.

Counterpoint
Is The Outperformance Of Global Ex-US Stocks Sustainable?
US equities have been underperforming their US peers over the past few months. Relatively more attractive valuations in both the Euro Area and EM, as well as an improvement in the economic outlook, have contributed to this outperformance. In the Euro Area, a…
Daily Insights
An Unsupportive Monetary Backdrop For Equities
Evidence of easing inflationary pressures – as well as favorable economic developments in Europe and China – are boosting investor sentiment and supporting US equities. Yet, this stock market behavior also reflects an improvement in technical conditions. The…
Daily Insights
Geopolitical Risk Will Rise Again
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should remain cautious and defensive. China is reopening and stimulating its economy in pursuit of stability after several rocky years. This is marginally positive news for the global…
Daily Insights
The US Approaches Its ‘Event Horizon’

Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading indicator of this event horizon, and what it means for investment strategy.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Sustainable Improvement In Consumer Confidence?
Easing inflationary pressures as well as a softening of the energy crisis and signs of economic resilience in Europe have led to a rebound in global consumer confidence. Our Global Consumer Confidence Indicator and its diffusion index – which are constructed…
Daily Insights
The 2000-2001 Roadmap
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the sustainability of the equity rally depends on whether corporate profits hold up. It is not unusual for a period of equity gains to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and…
Daily Insights
To Chase Or Not To Chase?

It is not unusual for a period of rebounding share prices to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and a growth scare. Initially, stocks rally on falling inflation and prospects of lower interest rates. Then, worries about corporate profits intensify, and equity prices deflate along with falling Treasury yields. This is what happened in the US in 2000-2001 and is likely to occur in the coming months.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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