BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service concludes that investors should favor the US dollar and the euro over the Chinese renminbi and Taiwanese dollar. Many investors speculate that China’s…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Thursday, September 22 (9:00 AM EDT, 2:00 PM BST). In this Webcast, I will discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for all the major asset classes…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service’s subjective odds of a US-Iran deal are 40%. They believe that the risk of failure is being underrated. The 2015 deal occurred in a context of Iranian strategic…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become…
The Global Manufacturing PMI declined further in August, falling to a 26-month low of 50.3, down from 51.1 in July. Notably, output fell into contraction. New Orders and New Export Orders indicate that domestic and foreign demand…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of The Year Home prices in the US are set to decline, almost certainly in real terms and…
Executive Summary US Companies Will Attempt To Raise Selling Prices To Protect Their Profit Margins China needs lower interest rates and a weaker currency to battle deflationary pressures. In the US, the main problem is…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service concludes that the improvement in BCA’s global LEI diffusion index is only attributable to China and Brazil. When grouping the countries within our global LEI by…