Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI The BCA global leading economic indicator (LEI) is still in a downtrend, but its diffusion index – which tends to lead the overall global LEI at major…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical strategy service, the odds of WWIII could be as high as 20% over the next two-years. The team presents a series of “decision trees” to formalize different scenarios…
Various manufacturing indicators have been signaling that economic activity is softening globally. Elevated price pressures are weighing on consumers’ purchasing power and have pushed real wage growth to negative territory…
Yesterday’s US ISM release showed a massive plunge in the Prices Paid index, which suggests that inflationary pressures are easing in the US. Other indicators corroborate this development. Oil and gasoline prices have…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year Following last week’s sharp post-FOMC rally…
The Global Investment Strategy service tactically downgraded equities in February but then upgraded them in May. The decision to upgrade equities to overweight in May was clearly premature, as stocks fell significantly in June. However…
Yesterday we highlighted that the US Conference Board’s measure of Consumer Confidence deteriorated further in July. This phenomenon is global. The GfK is forecasting that German consumer sentiment will hit a fresh low in…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
Taiwanese export orders rose 9.5% y/y in June, accelerating from the 6.0% pace in May and beating expectations of a more muted improvement to 6.4%. Orders for information & communication products – which accounted for…