Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chinese Stocks Are Relatively Cheap The Chinese economy faces a trifecta of economic woes: 1) The threat of renewed Covid lockdowns; 2)…
The global manufacturing PMI was broadly unchanged at 52.4 in May versus April’s 52.3. Output declined, though at a slower rate than in April (49.7 vs 48.6). While New Orders growth accelerated, it remains timid (50.9 from…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Recession Checklist US stocks were down almost 20% at their lowest point in May. Any lower and they would be pricing in recession.…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary US Financial Conditions Have Tightened Significantly This Year US financial conditions have tightened by enough that the Fed no…
Executive Summary KRW vs JPY: A Play On Global Slowdown And Lower US Bond Yields Global financial markets appear to be moving away from inflation worries to pricing in a major growth slump. Global growth is downshifting,…
The US 10-year Treasury yield has been trending lower over the past couple of weeks after breaking above 3% earlier in May. By Friday afternoon it was more than 30bps below its May 6 peak. Other major global government bond…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…
Executive Summary Global inflation will peak sometime in the next few months, a process that has likely already begun in the US. This will give policymakers some breathing room to turn less hawkish, a more credible stance given…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Global Equities Are More Attractively Valued After The Recent Sell-Off We tactically downgraded global equities in late February but see…
Uninspiring global manufacturing PMI releases for April reinforce the near-term underperformance of global cyclical sectors relative to global defensives. Both measures of Chinese PMIs indicate that manufacturing activity has…