Our Global Fixed Income strategists’ Global Duration Indicator is comprised of three elements: BCA Research’s Global Leading Economic Indicator, the Global Leading Economic Indicator’s diffusion index, and…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
The Global Manufacturing PMI fell 0.7 points to an 18-month low of 53.0 in March. The Output, New Orders and Future Output components all decelerated (but remain in expansionary territory) and the New Export Orders series dropped…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service examines the risk of stagflation and explores how the current episode compares to the 1970s. The underlying problem during the 1970s was the combination of high inflation…
Lockdowns in China are an upside risk to inflation this year as authorities attempt to control the surge in Omicron cases. The latest is a two-stage lockdown of Shanghai that was announced earlier this week. The risk to supply…
Flash PMIs suggest that economic activity was surprisingly resilient across developed market economies in March. In the US, the services PMI jumped by 2.4 points to 58.9 and the manufacturing index increased by 1.2 points to…
Both demand-side and supply-side factors are responsible for soaring inflation. On the demand-side, pandemic lockdowns and health concerns constrained services and freed up cash for consumers to spend on goods. This shift in…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, Value/Growth is an inferior framework to sector positioning. Quality remains a better factor than Growth. The recent rebound in the relative performance of…
BCA Research’s Growth Tax Indicator is sending a negative signal for the economic growth outlook. The indicator is constructed using rates, oil prices, and the dollar. Rising Treasury yields, a flattening yield curve,…