Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
In late-January we highlighted that US stocks were the worst performing major global equity market at the start of this year. This reflected a reversal of last year’s trend: bourses that generated the greatest returns in…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, allocations to inflation-linked bonds are a necessary hedge to the war and the associated commodity shock. Since the Russian invasion began, breakeven…
The FAO Food Price Index hit a record high in February on the back of increases in the vegetable oil, dairy, cereals, and meat price sub-indices. The headline index is likely to rise further in March. Ukraine and Russia together…
One consequence of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has been a surge in energy (and other commodity) prices. Brent crude is up 47% this year. As a result, global energy stocks have been the best performing sector this year, rising 17…
Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…
Executive Summary No Contagion Yet The risk of contagion into other FX pairs from the collapse of the RUB remains contained but is rising. The main transmission mechanism will be a global rush into dollars, should the…
Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the…
Our Global Fixed Income Strategy team has cut their recommended exposure to European high-yield and Emerging Markets (EM) USD-denominated hard currency debt in response to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. While the geopolitical…
Global manufacturing PMI data for February were modestly positive. The US and European manufacturing PMIs remain well above the 50 line, suggesting manufacturing was robust in DM economies prior to the current geopolitical…