Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…
Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…
Highlights In this week’s report we update our Chart Pack, updating familiar charts that underscore our strategic themes and cyclical/tactical views. Social unrest in Kazakhstan points to two of our strategic themes: great power…
Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant model remains bullish on risk assets. Within the equity universe, the model is relatively neutral in its sector positioning. Model: The sector…
The global manufacturing PMI remained at 54.2 in December, unchanged from its October and November figures. Notably, the new orders, output, and employment components all registered stronger readings. Meanwhile, the report…
The strong performance of industrial commodities – in line with our Commodity strategists’ bullish outlook for oil and industrial metals last year – stands out among other major financial assets in 2021.…
In a marked change of fate from November, global financial markets ended 2021 on a positive note. Most major assets experienced above average gains in December. The poor performance of UK and Euro Area equities in November on…
As 2021 draws to a close, we thank you for your ongoing readership and support. We wish you and your loved ones a happy holiday season and all the best for a healthy and prosperous 2022. Highlights Over the coming three months, the…
Flash PMIs suggest that the pandemic is once again dampening the Economic recovery process. Services PMIs eased in Germany, the UK, the Eurozone, and to a lesser extent, the US. The German indicator was particularly weak: the…