Europe is once again at the center of the pandemic. On Friday, the WHO reported that two million COVID-19 cases were reported in Europe last week – an all-time high. Governments are responding. A three-week partial lockdown…
Highlights US growth will slow next year, not because demand will falter, but because supply-side constraints will prevent the economy from producing as much output as households and businesses want to buy. If aggregate demand…
Highlights There is a high risk of a global demand shortfall in 2022. This is because consumer demand for services will remain well below its pre-pandemic trend… …while the recent booming demand for goods is crashing…
Both demand- and supply-side forces are behind the surge in US inflation this year. Generous fiscal transfers supported households’ balance sheets and supported greater spending on manufactured goods. Meanwhile, the…
Global sovereign bond markets face two opposing forces. On the one hand, expectations that central banks will be forced to dial up hawkish responses to inflationary pressures is a source of upside to bond yields. On the other…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects backwardation in the global benchmark crude oil forward curves to continue which will support long commodity index exposure. While prompt futures and…
The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up 0.2 points in October to 54.3, suggesting that global manufacturing activity accelerated slightly. However, the Output component slowed to a 16-month low. Instead, the firmer headline PMI…
Highlights The circumstances of the pandemic improved in October, but data highlighting the economic consequences of the Delta wave grew more severe. US economic activity slowed meaningfully in the third quarter, driven by lower car…