Highlights Increasing consumption should be a lot easier than increasing savings. After all, most people like to spend! It is getting them to work that should be challenging. Yet, the conventional wisdom is that deflation is a much…
Highlights Inflation in the US and many other countries is likely to follow a “two steps up, one step down” trajectory of higher highs and higher lows over the remainder of the decade. Goods inflation will ease in 2022,…
New data from the University of Cambridge shows the impact of China’s recent ban of cryptocurrencies on the structure of global Bitcoin mining. In 2019, China accounted for three quarters of global mining activity. As regulations…
In a seminal paper, Fama and French describe the process of migration as the movement of stocks across different value buckets. An example is when stocks in the cheap bucket migrate to the neutral and expensive bucket, or when…
Highlights A perfect storm has engulfed global energy markets. Strong economic growth, adverse weather conditions, and politically-induced supply disruptions have caused energy prices to surge. Fortunately, the global economy has…
Highlights The surge in energy prices going into the Northern Hemisphere winter – particularly coal and natgas prices in China and Europe – will push inflation and inflation expectations higher into the end of 1Q22 (Chart of…
Next week is the BCA Annual Conference, at which I will debate Professor Nouriel Roubini on ‘The Outlook For Cryptocurrencies’. I will make the passioned case for cryptos, and Nouriel will make the passioned case against. I…
Tensions are once again heating up around Taiwan. A record number of Chinese PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone in recent days, with the number reaching 56 on Monday alone. These incursions follow large…
The direction of global monetary policy is shifting in a more hawkish direction. Among major DM central banks, the Norges Bank has already implemented its first rate hike. The RBNZ, BoE, and BoC are expected to follow suit before…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service fiscal drag is probably overstated as governments are likely to increase deficit spending on the margin. US Congress is likely to pass Biden’s $550 billion bipartisan…