Within a global equity portfolio, the most important allocation decision for investors to make is usually whether to favor US or global ex-US equities. But within an allocation to the latter, there is also the question of whether…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, a productivity super-boom will cause interest rate hikes to be much later and much shallower than the market is pricing. Just as advances in tennis, swimming and the high jump…
Highlights Advances in tennis, swimming and the high jump came from challenging the ‘best practices’, and finding better ways of doing these things. The pandemic has challenged the best practices on how we should work, do…
Global services continue to recover smartly despite the latest wave of COVID-19 infections. Even after losing 1.2 points in July, the global services PMI remains relatively elevated at 56.3, indicating that the sector continues…
The global leading economic indicator has rolled over, suggesting that growth momentum is set to slow. Moreover, the global LEI diffusion index, which typically leads the LEI by six months, has declined sharply. This indicates…
Flash PMIs were mixed in July. The Eurozone composite measure ticked up 1.1 points to a 21-year high of 60.6, above expectations of 60.0. However, the UK and US composite indices declined slightly, but remained relatively…
Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. In lieu of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Arthur Budaghyan, BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets Strategist. Arthur’s…
Highlights The Delta variant will continue causing jitters but there is much greater evidence today than there was in early 2020 that humanity can curb the virus, both with vaccines and government stimulus. Delta jitters will…
BCA Research’s Counterpoint service observes that over the past three years the US dollar has almost perfectly tracked the performance of bonds versus equities, proving that the main driver for dollar demand is (defensive)…