Global manufacturing PMI in June was at robust 54.4, indicating that more than 50% of global manufacturing industries continue expanding. Such a robust reading of global manufacturing PMI was despite the weakness in Asian…
Highlights The US dollar will reach its ultimate high in the next deflationary shock. The swing factor for dollar demand is portfolio flows. In the next shock, portfolio flows will surge into US investments, driving up the US dollar to…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Highlights The sharp drop in Chinese lending over the past year is highly likely to weigh on (non-oil) commodity demand and prices through the remainder of 2021. Commodity demand shocks dominate commodity supply shocks. Commodity…
Flash PMIs were mixed in June. Composite indices for the US and to a lesser extent the UK – both leaders in the vaccine rollout and reopening process – softened. Surprisingly, US services experienced a greater than…
BCA Research’s Global Growth Indicator, which is based on the price of copper, Korean equities, Kiwi bonds and the US ISM manufacturing index, is sending a warning to value stocks. Its latest readings have ticked down from…
Dear Client, Next week, instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from BCA Research’s MacroQuant tactical global asset allocation team. Titled “MacroQuant: A Quantitative Solution For Forecasting…
Highlights Oil demand expectations remain high. Realized demand continues to disappoint. This means OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy – i.e., keeping the level of supply below demand – will continue to dictate…
Relative to history, global equity markets have become richly valued over the past several years, particularly in the US. While stock prices are not expensive relative to competing assets such as government bonds and cash, this…
The Group of Seven meeting in the UK on June 11-13 highlighted the rhetorical shift among western democracies as they attempt to recover their political support in the wake of the global pandemic and recession. The joint…