Special Report

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.

The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…

Special Report

Stocks will only get temporary relief from gridlock. Inflation will abate but then remain sticky. US and global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain historically high.

Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.

Special Report

Favor US and Southeast Asian stocks over global stocks. Stay underweight China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…

Special Report

Executive Summary Turkey is staring into an abyss: economic crisis that will morph into political crisis in the June 2023 election cycle. President Erdoğan will pursue populist economic policies and foreign policy adventurism to try…

Special Report

Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from…