Gold

Long-term investors should own gold. The network effect that makes gold the physical ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance. But long-term investors should also own bitcoin. The network effect that makes bitcoin the digital ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance that betters even gold.

Détente between China and the US is a big deal. Economic data continues to give the Fed reasons to cut. What is there to be worried about? Very little. But we chew on some bearish thoughts as we start thinking about 2026.

MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.

Precious metals, corporate credit, and tech stocks are all showing signs of late-cycle euphoria. We identify various trigger points that investors should monitor to turn more bearish.

Speculative froth has built up across all precious metals, yet gold’s structural tailwinds will allow it to weather corrections better than its peers.

In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.

Commodity market breadth would need to improve for it to signal bullish conditions for the aggregate commodity complex. We maintain a defensive tilt within commodities, favoring precious metals over the more cyclically sensitive energy and industrial metals.