Gold

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Falling core inflation in the US over the short run will boost real disposable household income, which will keep consumption – ~ 70% of US GDP – strong. Over the medium- to-longer term – 3 to 5 years out – inflation risks rise as fiscal dominance becomes the Fed’s modus operandi, and economic fragmentation becomes entrenched. War and the expansion of war remains an inflation risk. In this environment, gold remains our preferred hedge.

In this report, we explore some trading opportunities after a volatile few weeks for FX markets.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.