Highlights Long-term investors should place up to 5 percent of their assets in cryptocurrencies. As the drawdown risk of owning cryptocurrencies converges with that of owning gold, the cryptocurrency asset-class can reasonably…
Recently, gold has been enjoying a sharp rally. The price of gold prices is up 4.5% so far in November to the highest level in nearly five months. Concerns that inflationary pressures will persist has renewed demand for the…
Highlights The surge in energy prices going into the Northern Hemisphere winter – particularly coal and natgas prices in China and Europe – will push inflation and inflation expectations higher into the end of 1Q22 (Chart of…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows. Transitory effects – chiefly supply-chain bottlenecks and a global scramble for…
Highlights Gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows regarding US monetary policy; higher inflationary impulses from commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks; global economic policy uncertainty,…
HighlightsThe power shortage in China due to depleted coal inventories and low hydro availability will push copper and aluminum inventories lower, as refineries there – which account for roughly one-half of global capacity – are shut to…
Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
Our fair value model based on TIPS yields and inflation breakeven rates shows that gold prices are back to equilibrium after a 6% undershoot earlier in August. The lack of trend in real yields for the past year, as well as the…