Gold looks set to stage a tactical rebound. It has become oversold and it is now trading at a significant discount relative to our short-term fair value model that encompasses both real interest rates and inflation expectations.…
Dear client, In addition to this week’s abbreviated report, we are also sending you a Special Report on currency hedging, authored by my colleague Xiaoli Tang. Xiaoli’s previous work mapped out a dynamic hedging strategy for…
Underweight Last December when we penned the 2021 high-conviction calls Strategy Report, we put global gold miners in the “also rans” section as we did not have the courage to go underweight despite our view of an economic…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The selloff in the long end of the Treasury bond market and related yield curve steepening, rising loan growth and a turnaround in bank net interest margins, all signal that a durable re-rating phase is…
The paradox of reflation is that if it is successful, investors should begin to expect a better future today, and thus higher interest rates down the road. This process has begun. Since August 2020, 5-year / 5-year…
Highlights For the month of February, our trading model recommends shorting the US dollar versus the euro and Swiss franc. While we agree a barbell strategy makes sense, we would rather hold the yen and the Scandinavian currencies.…
Highlights US inflation expectations will continue to grind higher as commodity markets tighten, and financial markets price to an ultra-accommodative Fed over the next 2-3 years. The US stock-market rally is reducing equity yields…
Dear client, In lieu of our regular report next Friday, we will be sending you a special report on Australia next Tuesday, co-authored with our Global Fixed Income colleagues. We hope you will find the report insightful. Kind regards…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…