The nearly 70% rally in gold prices over the past two years has been spectacular and has allowed the yellow metal to outperform the S&P 500 by 40% over the same period. Historically, gold outperforms equities when…
Historically, strong gold prices have coincided with an outperformance of EM equities, but not this time. Can the divergence between gold and EM stocks continue? The strong correlation between the relative performance of EM…
Precious metals saw a spike in volatility on August 11. Silver fell 15%. Gold is down 6% over the past five days. The trigger was probably the deflationary implications of a premature tightening in US fiscal policy, given the…
Please note that we will be on our summer holidays next week. Our next report will come out on August 20. Highlights The 30-year bond yield is the puppet master pulling the strings of all other investments. Where 30-year bond…
Boosted by declining real interest rates and rising inflation expectations, gold punched through the psychologically important $2000/oz level. From a tactical perspective, gold is now vulnerable to a countertrend correction. Our…
The FOMC’s dovishness further fed the rally in gold prices. An extended period of accommodative policy leads to lower real rates and a weaker dollar, which creates two major positives for gold prices. For now, cyclical…
The recent rally in gold prices has happened in conjunction with a marked deterioration in our Economic Sentiment Index. This index reflects the difference between our Valuation Index for stocks relative to that of bonds. When…
The weakness in the US dollar has supercharged the rally in gold. However, more than the greenback’s depreciation supports gold prices. Our advance/decline line for gold shows that the yellow metal’s strength is…
Highlights The dollar is on the verge of a significant breakdown. If the DXY punches through 94, it will likely mark the beginning of a structural bear market. The most recent catalyst – fiscal support in the euro zone –…
Our global growth sentiment indicator remains depressed. This indicator is simply the difference between our equity valuation index and our bond valuation index. Investors pushing equities in overvalued territory relative to…