Spot gold prices have increased 17% year-to-date, on the back of global growth weakness, dovish central banks, and rising political tensions. Should investors now pare back their gold exposure? Common sense would suggest they…
Highlights The global manufacturing cycle is likely to bottom soon, and consumption and services remain robust. The risk of recession over the next 12 months is low. This suggests that equities will continue to outperform bonds. But…
Neutral Global gold stocks have gone parabolic over the past four months and are in desperate need of a breather (top panel). Simultaneously, were President Mario Draghi to re-commence QE in the form of sovereign and…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The contracting manufacturing sector that rekindled recession fears, the harsh reality of the Sino-American trade war weighing on profits, downbeat business confidence and mushrooming capex slowdown…
Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug-of-war between deteriorating global growth and easing global financial conditions. Such an environment is typically fertile ground for a dollar bull market, yet the trade-weighted…
Highlights While a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence that plunges the global economy into recession cannot be excluded, it is far from our base case. Provided the trade war does not spiral out of control, it is highly likely that…
Escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions. The effect on gold prices from an escalation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions are difficult to model. On the one hand, such an escalation would positively impact gold prices, because it increases…
BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy and Commodity & Energy Strategy services have collaborated to analyze how gold performs better than most alternative safe-haven assets – i.e. U.S., Japanese and Swiss bonds and…
Last Thursday we were stopped out from our tactical S&P semi equipment underweight position as it hit our -7% stop loss (bottom panel). We are obeying the stop loss and are returning this index to a neutral weighting as…