Overweight Within our broad-based U.S. equity sector and subsector coverage, we continue to recommend a modest gold-related hedge via being overweight the global gold mining index (given that the S&P gold index only…
Not only is there a tight inverse correlation with the trade-weighted U.S. dollar, but over the past three years the Chinese renminbi has moved in lockstep with gold. Now that Chinese policymakers are tentatively injecting…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy While equities will likely be higher in the coming 9-12 months, we would refrain from committing fresh capital to the market at this juncture. A better entry point lies ahead. Tactically, this market…
For most of 2018, the U.S. dollar and real rates were the primary determinants of investor sentiment and positioning toward gold. As these variables rose, investors’ sentiment and positioning turned overly bearish; this…
The hiatus in the Fed’s rates-normalization policy in 1H19 in the wake of its capitulation to financial markets, supports our bullish view on gold prices, as it raises the risk of an inflation overshoot later this year. Per the Fed…
… quick’s the word and sharp’s the action. Jack Aubrey1 Idiosyncratic supply-demand adjustments – some induced by head-spinning reversals of policy (e.g., the U.S. about-face on Iran oil export sanctions)…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Highlights Gold's performance during the "Red October" equities sell-off, coupled with that of the most widely followed gold ratios (copper- and oil-to-gold), indicates investors and commodity traders are not pricing in a…
Highlights Five risks to our bullish dollar stance need to be monitored: further weakness in the S&P 500; rebounding gold prices; stabilizing EM exchange rates and bond prices; Spanish bank stocks at multi-decade lows; and large,…