Highlights Washington must establish a "credible threat" if it is to convince Pyongyang that negotiations offer the superior outcome; The process of establishing such a credible threat is volatile; U.S. Treasurys, along…

Highlights Strengthening income growth is apparent in DM and EM trade volumes, real wages in the U.S., and industrial commodity prices, chiefly oil and copper. This indicates inflation at the consumer level will move higher in the near…

Highlights Business capital spending is still trending up, adding another layer of support for the U.S. economy in the next 6-12 months. Profit growth has accelerated at a faster pace than our top-down model had projected and we…

Highlights We are going long spot gold at tonight's closing price, given our view that inflation and inflation expectations will continue to move higher going into 2018. In the U.S., we expect higher fiscal spending and tax cuts…

Feature Table 1Recommended Allocation  Don't Worry About The Tepid Data Risk assets are likely to continue to grind higher. Two of the catalysts we cited for this in our most recent Quarterly1 have half happened: European…

Special Report

Highlights Safe-haven assets do not simply outperform equities on a relative basis during bear markets. In fact, the average return of nine safe-haven assets has been positive in every bear market since 1972. A safe haven should serve…

Global gold mining stocks are breaking out on the back of the bid in gold prices. The confluence of spiking geopolitical uncertainty, both in the U.S. and globally, rise in equity volatility and safe haven bid in U.S.…

Highlights The Fed's evident desire to lift its policy rate next week - presumably to get out ahead of inflation that has yet to show up in its preferred gauge - will weigh on gold. Oil ... not so much. This is because fundamentals…

Highlights Gold volatility is trending lower, suggesting unresolved economic and political issues are diminishing, and investors' confidence in the global economy is improving. This is a false positive. Uncertainty is elevated.…

Gold mining shares look increasingly attractive, at least as a portfolio hedge. We took profits on our overweight position in the middle of last summer, just prior to the share price crunch, because tactical sentiment and positioning…